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A Hybrid Fuzzy Risk Evaluation Model For Real Estate Investments
Alp Ustundag, Emre Cevikcan and Mehmet Serdar Kilinc

Risk evaluation has been an important task for real estate investments in uncertain economic conditions. Fuzzy rule based systems (FRBS) have been the most popular and easiest way to capture and represent fuzzy, vague, imprecise and uncertain domain knowledge. This study proposes a hybrid risk evaluation model for real estate investments which integrates FRBS with Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process (FAHP). In the proposed hybrid model, FAHP is used to evaluate the real estate quality analytically with respect to the judgments of experts. Then, the obtained quality score is utilized as one the inputs of FRBS method which uses fuzzy IF-THEN rules defined by the experts. In this study, the rule base of the hybrid model combines the factors of age and quality of a real estate with general economical factors of the market. The proposed model is applied to determine the prices of three different real estate in Istanbul based on quality of house, size and risk factor.

Keywords: Real estate, hybrid risk evaluation model, fuzzy logic, FRBS, FAHP.

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