Developing a Fuzzy Based Decision Making Model for Risk Analysis in Construction Project
Selcuk Cebi
The construction industry has been faced with several risks in project level due to dynamically changed factors such as environmental, external, financial, and site factors that cause increasing in costs, time delay, and even project failure. Therefore, risk analysis of a construction project is a critical phase in terms of project performance and its feasibility. Principally, a risk assessment methodology calculates total risk magnitude of a project by taking the risk magnitude of each factor into account. The mentioned parameters (i.e. risk likelihood, risk severity) are commonly used to calculate risk magnitude in the existing studies in literature. In this study, a new risk assessment methodology based on multicriteria decision making methods has been proposed to handle risk likelihood and risk severity of each risk factor in construction project that lead to a project failure. The main structure of the proposed methodology is based on analytic hierarchy process (AHP) integrated with the linguistic evaluation procedure. Specifically, AHP is used to define risk severity and risk likelihood of risk factors while linguistic evaluation procedure is used to define linguistic terms utilized in the evaluation process by the experts. The proposed algorithm was applied to the risk analysis of a housing project to illustrate how a real case implementation of the methodology can be achieved in practice.
Keywords: Risk assessment, fuzzy sets, linguistic evaluation, AHP.