ANFIS Modeling for Forecasting Oil Consumption of Turkey
Ozlem Senvar, Gozde Ulutagay and Ebru Turanoglu Bekar
In this study, the interrelationship between oil consumption and economic growth is examined via ANFIS modeling that is used to obtain long term forecasting results for oil consumption of Turkey through predetermined inputs, which are specified as population, gross domestic product (GDP), import and export. The data samples from 1965 to 2000 are conducted for developing the ANFIS model indicating the relationship between the oil consumption and the four inputs. Triangular types of membership functions are defined as low, medium and high for each input parameter in the ANFIS prediction system. Afterwards, oil consumption of Turkey is predicted from 2012 to 2030 using double exponential forecasting technique. Hence, this study can act as a guideline for long term forecasting of future oil consumption of any other country.
Keywords: Adaptive Neuro Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS), Double exponential smoothing technique, Forecasting, Oil Consumption.